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AugurMarket Forecast

Decentralized prediction market platform.

A decentralized prediction market platform based on Ethereum blockchain technology. Users can use digital currency to make predictions and bets, and rely on the wisdom of the crowd to predict the development of events, which can effectively eliminate the risk of counterparty and centralization of servers, and at the same time use encrypted currency (such as Bitcoin) to create a global sex market.

Augur does this by allowing anyone to create and speculate in financial derivatives cheaply, anytime, anywhere, for the first time in history. If Bitcoin gave us decentralized currency and Ethereum brought decentralized computing, Augur will empower a decentralized financial system.

Curve encountered a governance attack and closed the USDM gauge: On November 11, according to Curve Finance official news, Curve Emergency DAO recently noticed an abnormal trend in the price of CVX. After joint research with Yearn and Convex, it was found that the abnormality was caused by Mochi protocol Governance attacks launched. Mochi uses its own token (MOCHI) to bribe votes in the CRV gauge, and encourages voting on its indicators through Convex, until the liquidity in the pool reaches 100 million US dollars, and then mints a large number of tokens for itself.

Mochi does not have a minting cap and set token economics at this point. The newly minted MOCHI with a custom price oracle set by the team itself has an LTV of 90%. Then USDM worth 46 million US dollars was minted in Curve, and USDM was converted into DAI, and then DAI was used to purchase Ethereum and finally purchased 105 CVX to lock it. And 99.5% of Mochi's total amount is owned by its team, which will mean that USDM is undercollateralized. At the same time, Mochi has serious security issues, and the newly purchased CVX may be used to provide more liquidity to the USDM pool, eventually creating more liquidity for the Mochi team, selling their under-collateralized USDM to other uninformed Token pair. Since this constitutes a clear governance attack, and Curve Emergency DAO believes that the token pairs in this pool are at risk, it has decided to close USDMgauge so that it will stop receiving CRV output immediately. [2021/11/12 6:47:29]

The prediction market Prediction Market gives us better predictions about the future, more direct hedging mechanisms and speculation mechanisms, and, after a long time, finally realizes the situation envisioned by Hayek and Arrow & Debreu.

Augur: Prediction markets performed better than opinion polls in elections: Former Morgan Stanley analyst Charles Rubenfeld published his column "Prediction Markets Win Again", writing how prediction markets beat opinion polls in this US election, and Reasons for the bright future of the prediction market. Retweeted Augur, a decentralized prediction market platform: This is a good overview of prediction markets and elections. “Even in today’s unwieldy, relatively illiquid and immature stage, prediction markets have outperformed polls and forecasters.” [2020/11/23 21:47:36]

The long-term vision is to outperform all derivatives markets in terms of liquidity and network effects, although in its infancy these constraints mean that the first markets and events on Augur will be around emerging markets, currently more expensive markets or A market that is restricted in some respects. Augur runs on Ethereum, removing intermediaries and reducing fees to the economic minimum necessary to operate safely. On Betfair, you'll pay more than 10% in commission; on Augur, it'll be 1% or less. For the first time, people will be able to transact on a censorship-resistant global trade platform without trusting counterparties. Liquidity is definitely global because Ethereum doesn't care where you come from, just an anonymous address.

Coinbase will support Augur's upgrade to REPv2: According to official news, Coinbase will support Augur's upgrade to REPv2 in supported jurisdictions. We'll share more details about our upgrade plans in the coming days. Users do not need to take any action. [2020/7/28]

While the initial version of Augur will use ETH-denominated markets (as they work well with short-term transactions/markets), they are too volatile for longer-term events. You also don't want to be in the right company, but end up losing money because of the fluctuation of ether currency. The solution to this problem is to allow markets to be denominated in stablecoins, or other cryptocurrencies that are stable against the dollar or other fiat money. MakerDAO is developing a stablecoin, and we do get some functionality out of the box. On Augur, it is possible to create a market that can be denominated in ETH, speculate on the USD price of ETH, and use it as a crude way to acquire stablecoins; in this transaction, one party is long ETH with leverage, and the other One side is short ETH but long USD. Because the collateral/denomination currency pair is denominated in ETH, the short side is an efficient stablecoin, and the long side is an efficient leveraged Ethereum. If Maker is done this way, and it survives, it's likely to be a very good choice.

A major piece of the puzzle is allowing higher transactions per second, which means using sharding or the Raiden Network. This is perhaps the hardest part, and the furthest away.

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