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Golden Observation | Deep correction of many currencies Where do "emerging" and "classical" go?



With the popularity of concepts such as DeFi, the encryption market has shown an overall upward trend, and Bitcoin even hit a new high for the year in August. For a while, the new leeks made a lot of money playing DeFi, and the old leeks hoarded coins with dismal returns, which became the headline topic. Many old leeks are worried about being abandoned in the bull market, and many new leeks lament "pull the new but not the old", and cannot play the old leeks.

However, things took a turn for the worse. Just last week, the news that the founder of SushiSwap sold tokens triggered a sharp drop in the price of Sushi. Some people in the industry are therefore worried that the bubble in the DeFi field is showing signs of bursting. The battlefield of new leeks is full of boos, but at this time, investment does not distinguish between classics and new ones, and the entire encryption market showed a downward trend last weekend. In addition, the trading volume of Deribit Ethereum options has also fallen sharply. Some analysts say that if the sentiment of derivatives traders is still pessimistic, this drop may only be the first in a series of drops.

It is worth mentioning that not only the impact of the bubble in the DeFi field, but also at the macro market level, the downside risk of US stocks has also caused crypto investors to worry about the recurrence of the "312" crash. The S&P 500 posted one of its biggest losses since the start of the summer last Thursday, falling 3.5% as investors dumped technology stocks and pushed the market's fear gauge near a 10-week high.

Golden Noon News | List of important developments at noon on October 25: 7:00-12:00 Keywords: Di Gang, blockchain industry, bitcoin rise, grayscale

1. Di Gang: The cumulative transaction volume of the central bank's trade finance blockchain platform is 205.6 billion yuan, and 50 banks have registered.

2. Xinhua News Agency: The Blockchain Industry Service Office has selected nearly 500 companies for incubation and pilot projects.

3. Director of Shanghai Customs Inspection Department: Customs will expand the scope of blockchain business pilots.

4. Jing Xiandong, chairman of Ant Group: In the future, "on-chain" will definitely become a standard configuration.

5. Shenzhen Business Daily: 33 million blockchain electronic invoices have been issued.

6. Grayscale GBTC has grown by $2 billion this year.

7. Bitcoin continued to rise, with a daily low of $13,025.34 and a high of $13,350. [2020/10/25]

In the face of this round of decline, how do the emerging and classical parties in the encryption market view it? What is the impact of macro trends and DeFi development on the future of encryption? Jinse Finance interviewed a number of people in the industry and listened to their analysis of this decline.

Golden Evening News | List of important news on the evening of October 7: 12:00-21:00 Keywords: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, BMW Vantage, Shopify, AdamBack, SWIFT

1. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency wants to clarify whether banks can hold encrypted privacy tokens.

2. Murda Beatz, a well-known music producer, revealed today that he has bought some bitcoins.

3. BMW Korea will launch BMW Vantage, a blockchain-based membership program.

4. The total lock-up volume of the DeFi protocol Balancer has dropped by 40.64% compared with yesterday, which has decreased by about US$200 million.

5. Blockstream CEO Adam Back reminded of risks, saying that criminals are posing as themselves to cheat.

6. E-commerce giant Shopify accepts cryptocurrency payments, and Alchemy Pay provides related services.

7. The Japanese exchange TAOTAO completed the share transfer and became a wholly-owned subsidiary of SBILM, a subsidiary of SBI.

8. Wang Chuan: DeFi is a decentralized liquidity black hole that will sweep the world.

9. Ripple co-founder: SWIFT and the related banking system are not the trend of the next two decades. [2020/10/7]

As a representative of senior investors, Chu Kang, the founder of Benrui Capital and co-CEO of ForTube, pointed out in an exclusive interview with Jinse Finance that the main reasons for this round of deep correction are miners’ selling, the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of DeFi speculation .

Golden hot search-ethexc list: ETC tops the list: According to the Golden Finance ranking data, in the past 24 hours, the search-ethexc volume of ETC topped the list. The specific top five list is as follows: ETC, MOF, BHD, BSV, BCH. [2020/6/28]

First of all, there is a callback requirement for Bitcoin and others. In the past two months, although the price of BTC has reached a new high and tested the resistance level of 12,000 US dollars several times, it has not been able to break through the historical strong resistance level of 12,500. The data suggests that large mining pools are sending larger than normal amounts of BTC to exchanges. Miners chose to sell their bitcoin holdings at relatively high levels, adding selling pressure to the market.

In addition, the dollar strengthened, the dollar began to rebound, and the macroeconomic improvement is expected to strengthen. The prices of gold and bitcoin, which are safe-haven assets, both fell sharply.

In addition, the cooling of DeFi speculation. DeFi is developing rapidly, and has rapidly evolved from the basic business of 1.0 (lending, oracle, DEX, stable currency, insurance, etc.) to the stage of DeFi 2.0, that is, liquidity incentives. Liquidity incentives have promoted the rapid prosperity of DeFi, and DeFi aggregators YFI and YFII have further deepened the FOMO market in the market, and at the same time formed "N-level subprime mortgages". Liquidity incentives allow funds to flow out from centralized exchanges to DeFi platforms at the same time, resulting in runs and triggering a serious liquidity crisis. In the development of the DeFi industry, speculators and builders have become two important forces dominating the market.

Golden Morning News | June 15 Overnight Important Updates: 21:00-7:00 Keywords: Filecoin, Lebanon, monitoring, Ethereum 2.0

1. Developers: Filecoin mainnet may be launched between July 20 and August 20;

2. Bitcoin transaction fees fell by 89% to $0.711 in less than a month;

3. Lebanon’s legal currency has depreciated severely, and the local Bitcoin has a premium;

4. Multiple governments monitor users trading on cryptocurrency exchanges;

5. The Ethereum 2.0 test network Onyx was launched on June 14;

6. JPMorgan Chase: BTC will continue to be used as a speculative tool rather than a store of value;

7. Co-founder of BiLira: It is expected that the Turkish government will introduce new blockchain regulations next year;

8. Dalian Office: Investors need to be wary of illegal fundraising around concepts such as "blockchain". [2020/6/15]

At present, the income of DeFi products is more reflected in the token rewards obtained in liquidity mining. Speculators pay more attention to the price of tokens in the secondary market. This greed-driven market behavior objectively promotes short-term prosperity, but it is not sustainable. Once the mining income is not satisfactory, the escape of funds will be extremely obvious.

Golden Relativity | Shao Jianliang: New mining machines or postponed online cloud computing power is applicable to the present: In this issue of Golden Relativity, Shao Jianliang, general manager of Canaan Technology Blockchain, pointed out: Some time ago, CoinShares released the latest report, 65% of the world's computing power Power is provided by Chinese miners. In the past two weeks, the computing power has not increased but decreased because of the impact of the epidemic, which has caused most of the new mining machines in domestic mines to fail to go online on time. However, the market has stabilized and rebounded recently, and transactions on the Bitcoin chain have repeatedly broken new highs. Difficulty value is an important parameter to dynamically balance the generation speed of blocks, which directly increases the difficulty of mining by a large margin.

It is more likely to delay the launch of new mining machines, which is difficult for miners who want to enter the market or make additional investments. However, cloud computing power is a relatively good choice. It is non-physical and not subject to logistics restrictions. Especially for the moment. [2020/2/13]

Builders pay more attention to the essential functions of DeFi. After a sharp correction, the market will return from the short-lived flashy and prosperous 2.0 to DeFi 1.0, that is, high-quality just-needed DeFi projects that meet market development will usher in a long-term bonus period for building positions. For example, the lending business of encrypted digital assets is a financial behavior that seeks additional income and liquidity on the basis of over-mortgaging digital assets and retaining the ownership of the mortgaged assets. Chu Kang also said that ForTube has always adhered to the role of the DeFi ecological builder, and is committed to providing digital encrypted asset investment, financing and transaction services for individuals and enterprises to meet the encrypted digital financial business needs of different users. It is understood that ForTube 2.0 has been launched, which can flexibly support financial services such as lending and lending of popular encrypted digital assets around the world.

As an analyst who is sensitive to the market, in the face of this round of decline, William, the chief researcher of OKEx Research, suggested that he should be more cautious in the choice of DeFi currency.

William, the chief researcher of OKEx Research, pointed out that the DeFi liquidity mining model can be divided into three groups: DeFi project parties, farmers engaged in "liquidity mining" in the primary market, and investors in the secondary market. The essence of "liquidity mining" is merchant subsidies, and it uses the money of investors in the secondary market to subsidize the farmers who have contributed to liquidity. In this model, merchants obtain liquidity (and traffic) at almost zero cost, yield farmers obtain high returns with low risk, and the secondary market is responsible for the final takeover. The key to the continuation of this game is that DeFi currencies in the secondary market maintain positive returns, but the plunge on Saturday has already sounded the alarm. In the past, under the Bo-fool theory, investors in the secondary market could still exit their positions in advance and play the game of drumming and passing flowers. After the sharp drop on Saturday, I believe that investors in the secondary market will have a clearer understanding of this game and will be more cautious about DeFi currencies.

Regarding the development of the macro market, William pointed out in an exclusive interview with Golden that the "3.12 plunge" was mainly due to the "black swan event". What about rapid spread? Likewise, the market did not anticipate a sharp drop in oil prices due to the sudden breakdown in oil talks. The current scale of disruption is similar to the black swan event in March, which may appear around the US election in November. Of course, the "black swan" is a low-probability event, and whether it will happen is another matter. The biggest uncertainty affecting the macro economy in the second half of the year is the US general election in November. It is still uncertain which candidate will win. The result of the general election will have a huge impact on the global economy and trade, but whether it is good or bad depends on the result of the election.

In the interview, Zhang Yiyun, the founder of Jidou Capital, considered himself an "old leek among new leeks", and said that this decline is certain.

In Zhang Yiyun's view, the early participants in DeFi earned most of the dividends of mainstream currencies, and now the market needs to be corrected. Bitcoin will most likely fall back to $8,000-$9,000 within 1-3 months, and DeFi projects will fall. more powerful. Now is not the best time to participate in investing in DeFi. The number of people who actually invest in DeFi projects in the world will not exceed 50,000.

In addition, participating in DeFi after the market pulls back enough to the bottom will obtain greater profit returns. The current DeFi project mining requires mainstream currency mortgage liquidity, and the decline of mainstream currency will cause greater liquidity loss, which will eventually lead to DeFi Project funding is insufficient.

Sushi is a typical case of an anonymous team shorting the market. Although the Sushi team cashed out Ether, they did not completely leave the market and made enough profits during the decline. For a project that has been admitted to three major firms in just a few days, the probability of death is very low. A plunge will bring greater opportunities, and a rise will also bring greater risks. It is estimated that many people will love and hate the Sushi project.

As a representative of the emerging faction, Chen Mo, the founder of the Bitouq blockchain governance live broadcast organization, believes that the whole process of market volatility and even the withdrawal of liquidity from cash is a manifestation of CEX declaring war on DEX.

Chen Mo analyzed that the turbulent market last week represented that CEX officially declared war on DEX, because DEX data is transparent, and CEX cannot get real data. From the data on the chain, there was no large amount of liquidity during the period when the market fell. Therefore, in order to cope with the run risk brought about by the rise of DEX, CEX is very likely to adopt data smashing, which will cause panic, and some miners will start to withdraw liquidity and realize it, leading to a series of chain reactions. This is also the main argument currently on the market.

In the past few days, the three major CEXs have successively launched DEFI mining business and verified this point. The battle between CEFI and DEFI has just begun. Personally, it doesn’t have much impact on me, because I mainly mine stablecoins, and POOL2-type nesting doll mining accounts for a small proportion, but for investors with high risk appetite, this decline is generally depreciated by nearly half.


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