​Contract Weekly｜It is expected that Bitcoin will stop falling and rise in the coming week

[Market review and official interpretation] [OKEx trading big data interpretation] [Big V and institutional interpretation] 1. This week’s important market review and official interpretation Market review: In terms of US stocks, US stocks closed mixed on Thursday, and the S&P 500 index New intraday and closing highs. As of the close, the Dow rose 160.35 points, or 0.57%, to 28492.27; the Nasdaq fell 39.72 points, or 0.34%, to 11625.34; the S&P 500 rose 5.82 points, or 0.17%, to 3484.55. In terms of gold, gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $19.90, or 1%, to close at $1,932.60 an ounce. In today's session, the lowest price of gold fell to 1914.70 US dollars, the highest reached 1987 US dollars, and the latest price was 1940 US dollars. In terms of currency market contracts, the screenshot is from the 1-hour K-line chart of the OKEx BTC/USD quarterly contract. This Monday showed a sideways market, and it fell rapidly to the bottom on Tuesday. From Wednesday to Friday, it maintained a bottom shock and formed a W-bottom pattern. The contract price during the week It touched around $11,260 twice. As of 11:49 am on Friday, the BTC spot price was reported at $11,365.10, and the BTC contract price was reported at $11,473.51. Figure 1: BTC/USD quarterly contract 1-hour candlestick chart - OKEx Bitfinex adds support for ETC/USDt and XMR/USDt margin trading: According to news on August 25, Bitfinex added support for ETC/USDt and XMR/USDt margin trading, users can trade up to 3.3 times leverage for trading. [2022/8/25 12:48:02] OKEx Investment Research Official Interpretation: This Thursday is a milestone day: the Federal Reserve announced to the outside world that it has formulated a new monetary policy strategy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a speech at the global annual meeting on Thursday: The Fed will strive to keep the inflation rate at an average level of 2% for a long period of time, which means that after a period of low inflation, the Fed will allow inflation to exceed Tune. In addition, the Federal Reserve also adjusted its views on the issue of maximum employment. "Maximizing employment is a broad and inclusive goal. This change reflects our affirmation of the benefits of a strong labor market, especially for many people in low- and middle-income communities." OKEx Investment Research believes, The Fed's statement formed a new consensus on Wall Street - the Fed will not raise interest rates in the next five years, or even seven years. Against the background of the continued weakening of the US dollar and the oversupply of the US dollar, it has given birth to the shortest bear market in the history of US stocks this year, and it is also the bull market that is most divorced from economic fundamentals. Bitcoin, which is a risky asset, has the possibility of continuing to rise in the general trend. 2. Interpretation of the important data of OKEx transaction big data this week 1. The number of BTC long-short positions compared to the consensus layer contract address in the past week. The number of new pledges is about 33,000 ETH: August 22 news, according to data monitoring on the Tokenview chain, the current consensus The total number of pledges of contract addresses on layer (formerly ETH2) reached 13.34 million ETH, and about 33,000 ETH were added in the past week. [2022/8/22 12:40:15] The screenshot is from the OKEx trading big data. In a week, the ratio of BTC long-short positions showed a trend of bottoming out. The lowest price was 1.00 on Tuesday, and then continued to rebound. It hit the highest value of 1.25 this week, indicating that the number of users holding long orders in the market is increasing this week, and the number of users holding short orders is decreasing. Strong, if the ratio of long-short positions continues to increase, the possibility of BTC contract prices continuing to fall will be smaller. Figure 2: BTC long-short position ratio-OKEx 2. The screenshot of BTC contract basis is from OKEx trading big data. It can be seen from the figure that the price of BTC contract has been falling all the way this week, and the contract basis fell slightly on Monday. Five shows a slight upward trend, but it is still a positive basis. This kind of divergence reflects that the downside risk of the current contract price is weakening, and it is expected to stop falling and rebound in the short term. Investors should pay attention to the risk of short selling. DeFi-focused trading app Structure launches in El Salvador: Jinse Finance reported that DeFi trading app Structure.fi announced that a new trading app is being launched in El Salvador, and the app is available in 98 countries. It currently supports 28 stock tokens and 37 crypto tokens. The company, which says it is participating in the British Virgin Islands’ regulatory sandbox, closed a $20 million funding round in December that included seed funding from Polychain Capital and proceeds from the sale of its STXR token. According to its website, the company was founded in 2020 by alumni of MIT and Jump Trading. [2022/8/12 12:19:52] Figure 3: BTC/USD contract basis in the current quarter-OKEx3, screenshots of total BTC contract positions and trading volume are from OKEx transaction big data, the total BTC contract positions in the past two weeks It showed a trend of rising and falling. On August 18, the maximum amount of total contract positions in the past two weeks was 1.326 billion USD. The total amount of BTC contract positions remained sideways on Monday and Tuesday this week. The total amount of positions in the five contracts continues to decrease. On Friday, the total amount of BTC contract positions recorded a minimum value of 1 billion USD in the past two weeks, while the trading volume and the total amount of positions showed a negative correlation trend, indicating that market investors have exceeded the market as the market fell. The number of open long positions is increasing, and the trading volume has increased significantly. Visual China: The company’s Yuan Vision platform relies on blockchain technology to generate a unique digital certificate: Golden Financial News, Vision China (000681.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform on April 13 that the company’s Yuan Vision platform relies on blockchain technology to generate a unique digital certificate. Digital certificates help artists create specific works of art that cannot be separated, copied, or tampered with. On the basis of protecting its digital copyright, realize the distribution, collection and use of authentic and credible digital and physical artworks, and help artists and high-quality IP to improve the liquidity of artworks. (Daily Economic News) [2022/4/13 14:22:40] Figure 4: Total BTC contract positions and trading volume - OKEx 4. The screenshot of USDT OTC premium comes from the trend chart of USDT OTC premium on OKEx platform, from the recent Looking at the two-week trend, the USDT OTC premium rate continued to maintain a negative premium. Compared with last week, there was a significant upward move this week, and the premium rate fell slightly this week. As of 11 a.m. on Friday, the USDT OTC premium rate was -0.49%, and the USDT OTC price was 6.91. The USD/RMB offshore price has continued to fall since May this year. As of Friday, the latest price is 6.8725. If USDT If it continues to weaken, the renminbi continues to appreciate, and the offshore price continues to weaken, the USDT OTC premium rate will continue to decline slightly. Figure 5: USDT over-the-counter premium-OKEx As of 10:30 on August 28, according to the big data of OKEx transactions, the ratio of long and short positions in BTC contracts was 1.25, and the number of long positions in the market has increased; the quarterly contract basis remained at $100 Nearby, the funding rate of the perpetual contract is still positive, and the total amount of delivery and perpetual contract positions has dropped to around 1 billion US dollars, but the strength of multiple parties is still not to be underestimated; in terms of BTC delivery and perpetual contract elite positions, the ratio of long accounts is 54 % has the advantage, the long position ratio is 19.66% and the elite account has a slight advantage in multi-party strength. Continue to pay attention to the changes in the positions of large investors. Hong Kong Treasury Bureau: It is now considering expanding the central bank's digital currency test, including adding value to the digital renminbi in different ways: According to news on October 18, the Hong Kong policy report suggested that the southbound trading stocks of Hong Kong Stock Connect should be denominated in renminbi. The Panel pointed out that the current direction is to study the denomination of "Southbound Stock" stocks in RMB. It is believed that many mainland investors hold RMB in the market. The implementation of relevant measures will help save the exchange process and stabilize the exchange rate price during transactions. He also pointed out that in the future, he will also examine the positioning of the GEM board and whether there is room for improvement. In terms of digital renminbi (eCNY), the Bureau has previously conducted tests with the Monetary Authority and the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China. Now it is considering expanding the test, including attracting more banks to participate and adding value to digital renminbi in different ways. (Guandian Real Estate Network) [2021/10/18 20:36:58] (Welcome to experience: https://www.okex.me/join?channelFlag=ACECO1500800) 3. Interpretation of big V and institutions 1. Interpretation of big V ( 1) OKEx analyst: Leo Zhang’s screenshot is from OKEx’s BTC/USDT quarterly contract day K-line chart. Since August 1, the TD indicator has shown a green sequence of 13, showing that the potential energy has begun to turn empty, and then the high-level sideways recovery has started. To the vicinity of the middle rail of BOLL, and then one yang and one yin washed the market and was bearish again. The market took advantage of the trend and fell below the middle rail of BOLL. The fast and slow line is still operating above the zero axis, and there is no obvious golden cross pattern, and KDJ has signs of forming a golden cross. Figure 6: OKEx BTC/USD quarterly contract daily K-line chart-AICoin operation strategy, the current market trend is mostly short on the daily line level, it is recommended that investors focus on short orders, and the stop loss position can be set near the middle rail of BOLL , if the market continues to fall, with the opening of BOLL enlarged, the lower track of BOLL will turn its head downward, and the middle track of BOLL will also go down, forming an obvious bearish trend, just take advantage of the trend to short; if the market stops falling, the technical indicators Under the effect of repairing resonance, the contract price effectively rebounds and breaks through the pressure of the middle rail of BOLL, then you can take advantage of the trend to place long orders, and the stop loss position can also be set near BOLL. (2) Weibo Big V: Hello everyone, I am a big Bitcoin player. The recent market is relatively chaotic. Now the market trend of Bitcoin and gold have a great linkage. From the perspective of the entire big cycle, Bitcoin has recently been in a state of consolidation at a high level. Every time it goes up, it is quickly shot down. Now the market continues to weaken and has reached the edge of the support level. Refer to the figure below. If it falls below the 6H Vegas channel, it may turn into a short market . Compared with Bitcoin, the trend of Ethereum is relatively regular and stronger, but it is also in a short-term downward channel. Inside 4H Vegas, above 6H, this is also a key position that needs to be paid attention to It is whether the upper track of the descending channel can break through, and there are two positions of the OKEx quarterly currency standard of 380 and 370. This is the last line of defense for the bulls. Once it falls below, it will turn into a short market. In terms of contracts, my operation suggestion here is to wait and see with short positions, see more and do less. If you want to do it, the suggested leverage should not exceed 10 times. Bitcoin should be long near the 6H Vegas channel. If it falls below it, you can short it. Ethereum is the same. Go short on the upper track, pick up short positions around 380-370, effectively fall below 370 and backhand short, now the market is more pin-pointed, you must control the stop loss position and strictly stop the loss when making contracts, and avoid carrying orders. If the spot market enters the market, it is also near 6H Vegas, and if it falls below, it must be shipped in time. (3) Big V on Weibo: Brother Boom Recently, Bitcoin has a very high correlation with gold. Last night, it followed the trend of gold. It did not fall below the previous low of 11111. Like the second detective. Ethereum did not break 370 either. Here it is too early to say that it is too early to bottom out and form a new upward trend, and the downward trend line is still pressing on it. It is not too late to wait for the bitcoin spot volume to break through above 11800 before going long. Now if you rebound, you should go short, and if you have a profit, you should run. It belongs to the time when the big shock chooses the direction. Try not to place orders to buy dips while sleeping. Personally, I think the second detective made by 11111 is an illusion. It is right to go down to the bottom, and 10500 may not be able to hold it. 2. Institutional Interpretation (1) The price of Bibull has gradually weakened along the 5-day line, and the trading volume has also continued to slump. It has fallen back many times during the rebound, and it has repeatedly inserted around $11,120, indicating that the currency price is still in a volatile trend , Recently, the currency price has been linked to gold, and has continuously fluctuated in a wide range. From the perspective of the hourly line, the currency price is in a large range. Due to the pressure of 12,000 US dollars, the MACD continues to fall after stepping back on the zero axis, and the possibility of short-term weak shocks Once it falls below the support of 11,100 US dollars, it will speed up to test the support of 10,500 US dollars. As long as it does not fall below 10,300 US dollars, it will not affect the long-term upward trend, and the consolidation of this area is very similar to before. It is a good opportunity to start bargain hunting around 11000.   (2) AICoin In the past week, Bitcoin fell as expected. On the way to the first round of decline and rebound, there are a large number of main force flat. Then ushered in a deeper downward adjustment. At present, the price is near the highest transaction price in the past of 11,482 US dollars. Red TD9 has appeared in multiple cycles. There are signs of the main force in the market. It is expected that the price of Bitcoin may stop falling and rise in the next week.

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