Golden Observation丨Data will not lie "Leek Moon" The average return rate of Bitcoin is -7%

Golden Finance Blockchain, September 10 News Just after the "Leek Moon Day", we saw that the US cryptocurrency exchange Kraken recently released a report on the volatility of the crypto market in August 2020, which pointed out that September was basically a year of Bitcoin market volatility. The worst month in history, typically yielding negative returns for investors. the

According to the report released by Kraken, from the perspective of historical data, September is indeed the worst month for the bitcoin market, with an average return of "-7%". The report pointed out that since Bitcoin’s market performance has been below its average return rate in most months of 2020, it is expected that September’s trend may be worse than usual.

Jinse Finance mining data broadcast | ETH's network computing power rose by 2.81% today: Jinse Finance reported that according to the data of the spider mining pool:

The computing power of the BTC network is 127.899EH/s, the mining difficulty is 17.60T, the current block height is 657434, and the theoretical income is 0.00000780/T/day.

The computing power of the entire ETH network is 270.768TH/s, the mining difficulty is 3482.08T, the current block height is 11279111, and the theoretical income is 0.00725137/100MH/day.

The BSV network computing power is 1.094EH/s, the mining difficulty is 0.15T, the current block height is 661747, and the theoretical income is 0.00082229/T/day. [2020/11/18 21:09:32]

Although Kraken is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term, they also ignited some "lights of hope" for investors in the report. According to the analysis, the share of Bitcoin supply in the past twelve months has not changed much. Also based on historical data analysis, This trend also indicates that a new bull market is coming.

Golden Relativity | Cai Weide: The United Kingdom claims that digital legal currency is the first major reform of the world currency in more than 320 years: In today's Golden Theory of Relativity, how to understand "the new economy proposed by the Governor of the Bank of England requires a different central bank" Regarding the question, Cai Weide, a national distinguished professor, PhD supervisor of Beihang University, and scientific advisor of the Blockchain Research Center of University College London, said: The first country in the world to propose digital legal currency is the United Kingdom. From the end of 2015 to 2016, they proposed this concept. When the problem came up with a concept, they said that this was a pioneering work in the world, and they said it was the first major reform of the world currency in more than 320 years. The Bank of England said that since the establishment of the Bank of England in 1694, they have It is found that the pound has not changed. Let’s just say that this is a major reform in the past 320 years. When I talked about it, there were many scholars from the central bank meeting in it. They were all very excited because this is a very big reform. Then this reform is mainly because the foundation of the entire bank has been transformed by technology. So in the past it was robbers who robbed, so the bank went bankrupt or something, but this time it was because of technology. [2019/8/15]

But Kraken added in the report that as the crypto market moves away from July’s price lows and so-called “pockets of suppression” volatility, Bitcoin is likely to see violent volatility in the future, writing:

Golden Finance News: Accenture announced the appointment of Valiente as the global blockchain innovation director, hoping to launch more cutting-edge solutions to help blockchain companies maximize their performance. [2017/10/17]

“There have been a dozen times in the past when Bitcoin’s annualized volatility bottomed out between 15% and 30%, and then bounced back to an average of 140%, with a 94-day average of 196%. As of late August, since July 24 After 38 days of hitting a price volatility low of 23%, we see volatility rising to 44% and prices up 25%.”

The Kraken report thus concludes that, based on historical data, there may be enough room for greater volatility and gains in the crypto market in the coming months. In addition, September has historically seen the lowest level of volatility in the month, which also seems to mean that Bitcoin will not experience severe volatility until at least the fourth quarter of 2020.

However, Kraken's analysis report is not a crystal ball for predicting the future, nor should we regard it as a reliable guide to predicting future events. For example, the cryptocurrency exchange had previously predicted that the price of Bitcoin would rebound by 50%-200% on August 10, that is, the trading price would be between US$11,500 and US$12,000, but the price plummeted to the range of US$11,000 on the same day. A nearly 20% pullback.

Kraken also pointed out in the report that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold reached a record high of 0.97 in August, but then fell back sharply to 0.25. According to news from Bloomberg on September 9, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold reached 0.8 on that day, the highest level since 2010. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes that if gold maintains a price level above $1,900, it is expected Bitcoin will remain above $10,000. A comparison of settlement volumes in the over-the-counter gold market versus Bitcoin proves that people have come to see Bitcoin as a store of value. Because it has significant advantages over gold, such as substitutability, liquidity, and easier transactions.

Bitcoin has similarly had a high correlation with the S&P 500 throughout most of August. After reaching a local top of 0.84, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 collapsed to minus 0.02, suggesting that Bitcoin may be breaking away from the traditional market’s meta-trend.

(Jinjin Finance Note: The so-called meta-trend is a philosophical term, which refers to "the trend that affects the trend, and the change that brings about change.")

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin was up slightly to $10,354.37, a 24-hour gain of 3.28%, giving it a market capitalization of about $191.4 billion.

Part of this article is compiled from cointelegraph

Tags：

Luna