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Golden Observation丨Data will not lie "Leek Moon" The average return rate of Bitcoin is -7%



Golden Finance Blockchain, September 10 News Just after the "Leek Moon Day", we saw that the US cryptocurrency exchange Kraken recently released a report on the volatility of the crypto market in August 2020, which pointed out that September was basically a year of Bitcoin market volatility. The worst month in history, typically yielding negative returns for investors. the

According to the report released by Kraken, from the perspective of historical data, September is indeed the worst month for the bitcoin market, with an average return of "-7%". The report pointed out that since Bitcoin’s market performance has been below its average return rate in most months of 2020, it is expected that September’s trend may be worse than usual.

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Although Kraken is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term, they also ignited some "lights of hope" for investors in the report. According to the analysis, the share of Bitcoin supply in the past twelve months has not changed much. Also based on historical data analysis, This trend also indicates that a new bull market is coming.

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But Kraken added in the report that as the crypto market moves away from July’s price lows and so-called “pockets of suppression” volatility, Bitcoin is likely to see violent volatility in the future, writing:

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“There have been a dozen times in the past when Bitcoin’s annualized volatility bottomed out between 15% and 30%, and then bounced back to an average of 140%, with a 94-day average of 196%. As of late August, since July 24 After 38 days of hitting a price volatility low of 23%, we see volatility rising to 44% and prices up 25%.”

The Kraken report thus concludes that, based on historical data, there may be enough room for greater volatility and gains in the crypto market in the coming months. In addition, September has historically seen the lowest level of volatility in the month, which also seems to mean that Bitcoin will not experience severe volatility until at least the fourth quarter of 2020.

However, Kraken's analysis report is not a crystal ball for predicting the future, nor should we regard it as a reliable guide to predicting future events. For example, the cryptocurrency exchange had previously predicted that the price of Bitcoin would rebound by 50%-200% on August 10, that is, the trading price would be between US$11,500 and US$12,000, but the price plummeted to the range of US$11,000 on the same day. A nearly 20% pullback.

Kraken also pointed out in the report that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold reached a record high of 0.97 in August, but then fell back sharply to 0.25. According to news from Bloomberg on September 9, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold reached 0.8 on that day, the highest level since 2010. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes that if gold maintains a price level above $1,900, it is expected Bitcoin will remain above $10,000. A comparison of settlement volumes in the over-the-counter gold market versus Bitcoin proves that people have come to see Bitcoin as a store of value. Because it has significant advantages over gold, such as substitutability, liquidity, and easier transactions.

Bitcoin has similarly had a high correlation with the S&P 500 throughout most of August. After reaching a local top of 0.84, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 collapsed to minus 0.02, suggesting that Bitcoin may be breaking away from the traditional market’s meta-trend.

(Jinjin Finance Note: The so-called meta-trend is a philosophical term, which refers to "the trend that affects the trend, and the change that brings about change.")

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin was up slightly to $10,354.37, a 24-hour gain of 3.28%, giving it a market capitalization of about $191.4 billion.

Part of this article is compiled from cointelegraph


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