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"You can rest in the second half of the year" investigation on the tight production capacity of Bitcoin mining machines



"All the mining machines are sold out, we can rest in the second half of the year."

"I have 50 million here, whoever has the goods will pay immediately!"

Wu said that the blockchain has learned from multiple channels that mainstream mining machine manufacturers such as Shenma, Canaan, and Yibang have sold out this year's spot, futures, and even most of their inventory. Bitmain was trapped by internal disputes and delayed shipments. Miners who want to buy spot are faced with a situation where they have nothing to buy.

At present, Bitcoin mining machines are mainly divided into two factions, one is Canaan, Whatsminer, Innosilicon, Ebang, etc., which use Samsung's 8nm chips; the other is Bitmain, which uses TSMC's 7nm chips.

The core reason for Samsung Pie is insufficient chip production capacity. At present, Canaan, Shenma spot and even futures are sold out, and even most of the inventory has been emptied, leaving only a small amount of inventory.

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There are two reasons for the lack of production capacity. The first is that Samsung’s own high-end technology level and production capacity are limited, which not only affects mining machines. It was reported that there might be some problems with Samsung's OEM orders for mobile phone chip manufacturer Qualcomm, so Qualcomm urgently asked TSMC for help in July.

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The second is that at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the mining machine factory had a conservative attitude towards the market and limited reservations. In the face of the negative factors of Bitcoin halving, mining machine manufacturers are generally not optimistic. Bitmain has laid off employees on its own initiative, and each company is relatively conservative in production capacity reservations. Unexpectedly, after a period of sideways trading, the price of Bitcoin once rose above 12,000 US dollars.

Specific to each mining machine manufacturer:

Canaan’s focus in the second half of the year will be on the AI field and SMIC’s cost-effective mining machines. At the same time, it is trying to grab TSMC’s production capacity for next year. The newly released A1166PRO futures have been scheduled until January next year.

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Innolux claims to launch a new generation of Bitcoin mining machines in the second half of the year, with an energy efficiency ratio of more than 20 W/T, using Samsung's 8nm chips. There is no accurate information about this product at present. It may be customized for customers and will not be sold publicly, or it may be a fake shot. At the same time, Innosilicon is pushing a customized version of the Ethereum mining machine.

Ebang shifted its focus to government telecommunications projects and cryptocurrency exchanges, "sell mining machines as soon as they have capacity."

The small and beautiful Whatsmart continues to focus on the development of the next generation of Bitcoin mining machines.

Insufficient production capacity has led to a serious shortage of high-power mining machines such as S19, M30S, and A1166PRO. While the supply is in short supply, there are also many overseas customers who spend a lot of money. At the beginning of the release of the M30S, it was stated that most of them had been sold overseas, and Bitmain also received a large number of overseas orders. The amount disclosed to the outside world has exceeded 500 million yuan.

Although the production capacity in the spot market is insufficient, the second-hand mining machine market is very active. Some large mine owners chose to sell off the previous generation of second-hand mining machines such as M20S and T17 when the price of Bitcoin was high before, and made a lot of profits.

In terms of TSMC, the current production capacity of 7nm mining machines is exclusively owned by Bitmain. However, due to the split of Bitmain, the chip was controlled by Jihan Wu, and the supply chain was controlled by Ketuan Zhan. Both parties were unable to ship separately.

Wu Jihan is rebuilding a new supply chain in Shenzhen. A previous document stated that some product orders originally scheduled for delivery in June-July 2020 are expected to be postponed until September-October 2020. There are rumors that shipments will start in the near future, but delivery is mainly to meet previous orders.

Previously, there was speculation that Huawei's withdrawal of production capacity would benefit mining machine manufacturers, but this is not true. Most of Huawei's production capacity has been transferred to Apple and Qualcomm. Due to the poor development of Samsung's 7/5nm and insufficient production capacity, more and more customers have turned to TSMC. At present, even Intel, which has built its own fab, has invested in TSMC, but it still can only get next year's production capacity.

Another unknown reason is that the epidemic has caused a sharp increase in demand for video, audio, and Internet industries, leading to a surge in demand for high-end technology chips such as mobile phone chips, server chips, and video processing, which in turn has taken away the chip production capacity of mining machines.

Industry insiders predict that the high-end production capacity of TSMC and Samsung will still be very tight in 2021. The core reason is firstly the technology monopoly of the fab, and the second is the strong demand for high-end technology in mobile Internet and other industries.

For mining machine factories, there are only two things to watch: first, whoever launches a mature 5nm chip first, if Bitmain does not split, will undoubtedly launch the first mining machine with a 5nm chip, and the energy consumption ratio may reach 25 or even 20 left and right; the second is the mining machine factory using Samsung chips, will anyone get the favor of TSMC, and then change the competitive landscape of the industry.


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