Analysis: Bitcoin investors hold coins and do not sell them, miners "hoard coins"

According to a report by Cryptopotato on August 31, Bitcoin miners and investors have slowed down the speed of selling tokens, and the atmosphere of "hoarding goods and hoarding goods" has become prominent. We have to wonder if they are waiting for another big bull market to come.

Recent data shows that the number of bitcoins that have not been moved for two years or more has reached the highest point in three years, and the "coin hoarding" thinking is prevalent. At the same time, miners have followed suit, and their Bitcoin holdings have reached the highest level in two years.

Analysis: US retail investors struggle to access Bitcoin futures market as SEC overprotects: Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has recently approached all-time highs. According to CoinDesk reporter Zack Voell, U.S. retail investors are not allowed to trade BTC derivatives. A spike in OI usually indicates that the trend will continue. The price of Bitcoin has been on an upward trend recently, breaking through $9,000 again after the price plummeted in mid-March. However, only a handful of the wealthiest traders in the United States can actually trade futures contracts. Bakkt and CME Group only welcome accredited investors. Exchanges offering liquid bitcoin derivatives are strictly off limits to U.S. traders, including OKEx, BitMEX, Huobi, Binance, Bybit, Deribit, FTX, Kraken, and Bitfinex. This means that U.S. retail traders are essentially banned from trading Bitcoin futures. Voell emphasized that U.S. traders have very little access to the market. "It's to protect us. Remember to thank our regulators." Many in the Bitcoin industry don't like this kind of regulation very much. There is a strong disdain for the intervention of lawmakers in the market, and it is generally believed that it is up to individuals to weigh their own risks. This runs counter to the SEC's official mandate: the SEC's mission is to protect investors; maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets; and facilitate capital formation. Matt Ahlborg, a data scientist at UsefulTulips.org, said the SEC shouldn't know who can or cannot trade which financial products. (Beincrypto)[2020/5/7]

Analytics firm Glassnode tracks the movement of bitcoin addresses to understand investor behavior. Its recent research found that since the summer of 2019, Bitcoin HODLers have increased their hoarding and decreased their purchases. The percentage of BTC that has not moved in more than two years has surged from 34% in July 2019 to 44% now, a three-year high.

Analysis: BitMex traders at risk of liquidation over leveraged trades: Cryptocurrency investors are learning the hard way about the downside of leverage amid a global asset class rout. Since March 6, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 15%, and thousands of traders on BitMex, the world's largest Bitcoin derivatives exchange, have faced liquidation. According to Skew data, the BitMex trading platform suffered the largest Bitcoin liquidation in three months on Sunday. According to TokenAnalyst.io data, more than $190 million has been liquidated on the exchange in the past 24 hours. BitMex offers up to 100x leverage for futures contracts, and when trades sour, users who borrow funds face the risk of margin calls that could eventually lead to liquidation of their positions. Nic Carter, co-founder of Coin Metrics, said that due to the high leverage ratio, the actual loss may reach 22 million US dollars. In recent months, bitcoin has experienced periods in sync with stocks, in part as funds investing in the two sectors adjusted their holdings. Denis Vinokurov, head of research at Bequant, a London-based digital asset company, said, "This is important because it also shows how institutionalized the crypto market is, and it also shows that a liquidity squeeze in one market can have a contagious effect on other markets. The flow of the stock market Sexual events may translate into a deterioration in the liquidity conditions of the crypto market, as market participants will be forced to adjust their portfolios and deal with margin calls, and alternative assets are unlikely to be prioritized.” (Bloomberg) [2020/3/ 10]

Analysis | Coindesk Analysis: BTC sees brief rally before falling to $7,000: According to Coindesk analysis, the short-term outlook has turned bearish as BTC closed below its 30-day moving average on Tuesday. At the same time, the daily line and the 3-day line also show that the price rebound from the December low has ended, and the price risk will drop to $7,000 in the next few days. Looking at the hourly chart, BTC may briefly recover to $8,000 before slipping to $7,000. Only a close above the 10-day average of $8,383 would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook. [2019/6/5]

Interestingly, when Bitcoin rallied to its all-time highs in late 2017 and early 2018, this metric also hit a record high of 46%. However, as Bitcoin approached $20,000, investors began to sell coins, a trend that lasted for more than a year before reversing before Bitcoin rose again in 2019.

Another indicator that confirms that Bitcoin investors hold their coins and not sell them is the 1+ year HODL line. It refers to the amount of major cryptocurrencies that have not moved on the blockchain in the past 12 months (or more). According to Cryptowatch monitoring, it has hit an all-time high of 63%+.

Glassnode, by studying the addresses of bitcoin miners, found that despite the surge in bitcoin prices since the third halving, they did not sell tokens. Currently, miners hold more than 1.8 million bitcoins, a two-year high.

Like investors, Bitcoin miners have been reducing their sell-off since last summer. However, the chart above shows that they sold a sizeable portion during the May halving.

In addition, miners usually need to sell tokens to pay for electricity during the mining process, which may further promote Bitcoin's rise. With the price of Bitcoin up more than 35% since the halving, miners have even more reason to choose to sell. Although the block reward is cut in half after the halving, miners temporarily prefer to hold coins for sale.

Tags：

Bitcoin