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Bitcoin is "decoupled" from stocks and gold prices, 63% of BTC has not moved for a year



FX168 Financial News (North America) News The United States-based encryption trading platform Kraken released its volatility report for August 2020 on September 8. The report predicts that the price of Bitcoin may plummet and have a negative performance in September.

According to Kraken’s Volatility Report for August 2020, Bitcoin will have a terrible September, with a possible price crash for the pioneering crypto before returning to extreme volatility.

(Source: Kraken)

In the past 30 days, the overall Bitcoin search-ethexc index has increased by 69% year-on-year: Jinse Finance reported that Baidu Index data shows that the overall daily average value of the blockchain search-ethexc index in the past 30 days is 5459, an overall increase of 29% year-on-year, and a year-on-year increase of 22%; Bitcoin The overall daily average of the search-ethexc index is 26,490, an overall increase of 69% year-on-year, and a year-on-year increase of 91% for mobile. The overall daily average of the Ethereum search-ethexc index is 4,659, an overall increase of 9% year-on-year, and a year-on-year increase of 16%. [2020/3/8]

September has historically been the worst month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -7%. “Given that Bitcoin has underperformed its average monthly returns for most of the year, we could see returns below -7%.”

Voice | Michael Arrington: Bitcoin ETF is expected to be passed by the end of the year: According to Ethereumworldnews, XRP investment partner and founder of TechCrunch in the United States Michael Arrington recently said in an interview with the media: Bitcoin ETF is expected to be passed by the end of 2018, when the price of BTC will reach $25,000. [2018/8/5]

The Kraken report warns that bitcoin volatility could soon rise due to “little-known market dynamics.”

(Bitcoin volatility trend, source: Kraken)

Voice | Apple co-founder: Blockchain is a bubble Bitcoin is digital gold: According to CCN, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak said at the NEX technology conference in New York on Tuesday that he believes that the blockchain is a bubble, unlike the Internet. Like foam. He said that he is not disgusted that blockchain technology may destroy the potential of many industries, but many blockchain startups will inevitably be overloaded, over-promise and under-deliver. Previously, Wozniak had said that he was particularly optimistic about Bitcoin and Ethereum, saying that Bitcoin is digital gold and Ethereum is a powerful platform that may be "the next Apple." [2018/6/28]

In the past, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has bottomed out between 15% and 30% on 12 occasions before climbing to an average of 140%, a 196% increase in 94 days. By the end of August, 38 days after the volatility low of 23% set on July 24, volatility had risen to 44%, with prices up 25%. "

The positive correlation between Bitcoin and gold and the stock market has strengthened in August, showing a clear upward trend. The correlation coefficients between Bitcoin and gold and the S&P500 index reached historical highs of 0.84 (August 24) and 0.97 (August 10), respectively.

(Source: Kraken)

But in the last week of August, after Bitcoin fell from a high of 12,480, it experienced a 10-day correction period and drifted away from the trend of gold and US stocks. Correlations with gold and the S&P 500 also fell back to 0.25 and -0.02, respectively.

The only bullish indicator Kraken points to for Bitcoin price is the accumulation of Bitcoin over the past 12 months.

Bitcoin hit a monthly high of $12,480 on August 11, mainly due to the fact that MicroStrategy, a Nasdaq-listed software company, also announced a $250 million bitcoin acquisition plan on August 11 as a new Part of a capital allocation strategy. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway bought a majority stake in Brarrck Gold on Aug. 17, pushing gold prices higher to a high of $2,075 an ounce.

(Bitcoin price and major events in August, source: Kraken)

In addition, there are also data reports that the number of Bitcoin whales is higher. There are currently more than 2,000 Bitcoin wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins, worth more than $11 million.

“As of August 31, 63% of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) in the blockchain have not changed in 1 year, which means that there are unprecedented amounts of Bitcoin in the hands of long-term holders.” Historically, This dynamic seems to have heralded a new bull market. "

(Bitcoin holding period of more than 1 year, source: Kraken)


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