First Release | OKEx Research: Bitcoin's market capitalization has fallen to a yearly low.Is a structural bull market approaching?

Since August, the price of Bitcoin has opened and moved higher. Although there is a slight correction at present, it is still at a high level for the year.

However, the proportion of Bitcoin's market value is shrinking in shocks. According to TradingView statistics, as of August 27, the total market capitalization of the crypto market was US$342.6 billion, of which Bitcoin’s market capitalization accounted for 61.35%, while on August 16, this figure was only 60.4%, setting a new low for the year.

In contrast, the price of Bitcoin, according to the OKEx market, Bitcoin broke through $10,000 at the end of July, and continued its upward trend in August, successfully breaking through $12,000, setting a new high in 12 months, which is in line with the fact that the market value of Bitcoin continues to decrease sharp contrast.

In fact, when the market environment is sluggish, Bitcoin, as the leading currency, has stronger hedging properties, and investors will give priority to allocating funds in their hands into Bitcoin. Therefore, in bear markets, the market value of Bitcoin will account for more than 70% of the phenomenon. . Correspondingly, when the market tends to be prosperous, altcoin hotspots emerge in endlessly. Even a small amount of capital injection may outperform Bitcoin, which attracts the attention of many investors, and Bitcoin is temporarily "left out".

LBank Blue Shell launched BOSON at 01:00 on April 10, and opened USDT trading: According to the official announcement, at 01:00 on April 10, LBank Blue Shell launched BOSON (Boson Protocol) and opened USDT trading at 23:00 on April 9. 00 open for deposit, and open for withdrawal at 16:00 on April 12. Open the recharge transaction BOSON at the same time as going online to share 10,000 USDT.

At 01:00 on April 10th, LBank Blue Shell opened the deposit transaction BOSON to share 10,000 USDT. The user's net recharge amount is not less than 1 BOSON, and the user can get USDT rewards equivalent to 1% of BOSON according to the net recharge amount; the trading competition will be ranked according to the user's BOSON transaction volume, and the top 30 can be divided according to the proportion of individual transaction volume USDT. For details, please click the official announcement. [2021/4/7 19:54:33]

According to this logic, on the premise of excluding a large amount of capital flight, the proportion of Bitcoin's market value will continue to decrease or it is expected to bring about a structural bull market. Is this really the case? OKEx Research will take you to reveal the secrets one by one.

First release | Bithumb will launch encrypted asset transfer service with Bithumb Global: Bithumb insiders revealed to Jinse Finance that Bithumb will launch a fast transfer service of encrypted currency assets between Bithumb and Bithumb Global without handling fees. The daily encrypted asset transfer limit is 2 BTCs. The news will be announced to the public this evening. It is reported that currently only BTC and ETH asset transfers are supported. [2020/2/26]

Bitcoin "halving effect" geometry

The biggest hotspot in the encryption market in 2020 is the third Bitcoin halving.

Referring to Bitcoin’s previous halving logic, as the supply decreases, the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise, leading the encryption market to start a new round of bull market, so under the influence of the “halving effect”, the encryption market has grown steadily since the beginning of 2020 . According to OKEx market data, the price of Bitcoin was $7,200 at the beginning of the year, and it successfully broke through the $10,000 mark on February 9.

First Release | Canaan Announces Strategic Cooperation with Northern Data in AI, Blockchain and Other High-Performance Computing Fields: According to official news, on February 17, 2020, Canaan Announced a partnership with Blockchain Solutions and Data Center The service provider Northern Data AG reached a strategic cooperation. The content-ethexc of this cooperation covers high-performance computing fields such as AI, blockchain, and data center operation and maintenance.

Canaan has rich experience in the development of ASIC chips for high-performance computing. Northern Data AG focuses on the construction of high-performance computing infrastructure such as blockchain and data centers. Through this strategic cooperation, the two parties will further release growth potential in emerging fields such as AI and blockchain. [2020/2/19]

Source: OKEx

First release | Vice President of Global Business of Huobi Group: Supervision will determine the speed of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency landing: On January 21, Ciara Sun, Vice President of Global Business of Huobi Group, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the district 2019 is an important year for the regulatory attitude of blockchain and digital currency. In the United States, by the end of 2019, there were 21 bills targeting cryptocurrency and blockchain policy. These bills include tax issues, regulatory structures, tracking functions and ETF approvals, which federal agencies regulate digital assets, etc. The European Union (EU) implemented a new law on January 10, 2020, requiring cryptocurrency platforms to adopt stricter anti-money laundering practices. Switzerland, Japan, Lithuania, Malta and Mexico have passed laws requiring exchanges to be licensed according to KYC and AML guidelines. Countries like China, Turkey, Thailand, and others are planning their own central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Regulation will determine the speed at which blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies will be implemented. [2020/1/22]

Since then, affected by external factors such as the epidemic, although the encryption market encountered a "black swan" in March, it gradually regained its lost ground and returned to the $10,000 mark at the end of July.

Bitcoin, however, has experienced a two-month dormant period. Especially since the third halving of Bitcoin, Bitcoin has fluctuated within a narrow range of $9,000-9,500 most of the time, and the transaction volume has continued to shrink.

Bitcoin has fluctuated within a narrow range for a long time, and investors lack interest in trading, because whether it is spot or futures, low volatility means low returns. In this context, many investors have turned their attention to other altcoins and the popular DeFi tokens in order to obtain higher returns, and the proportion of Bitcoin's market value has decreased accordingly.

Source: TradingView

TradingView recorded the trend of Bitcoin’s market capitalization: on May 6, Bitcoin’s market capitalization exceeded 68%, and then fell all the way, reaching a year-end low of 61.5% on August 3. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin rose from $9,100 to $12,000.

On the one hand, the price of Bitcoin has risen, and on the other hand, the proportion of Bitcoin's market value has shrunk. A similar situation was actually more obvious in the bull market from the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2018: in just one month, the proportion of Bitcoin's market value fell from 67% to 37%. , a drop of nearly 50%.

In contrast, Bitcoin's market capitalization has seen a relatively small decline this year, which is far from being comparable to the previous bull market. In addition, the global epidemic has not yet been effectively controlled, and the overall market is still facing greater uncertainty. It remains to be seen whether the encryption market will start a structural bull market. From the current point of view, investors can focus on mainstream currencies with better targets.

Encryption market outlook in the eyes of practitioners

After two months of dormancy, Bitcoin completed a breakthrough. How will the encryption market evolve next? As far as the current situation is concerned, many practitioners and institutions are advocating a bull market.

Joe Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and founder of ConsenSys, said that the next bull market seems to have begun. We have seen many tokens in the ecosystem appreciate rapidly. The DeFi revolution is in full swing and it is growing at an incredible rate .

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of Leibit Mining Pool, also believes that the bull market has arrived, which is specifically reflected in: 1. When the last round of bull market was hot, the average BTC transaction fee was one or two hundred yuan, and the transaction fee was several thousand yuan 2. In December 2017, within one month, users paid 19,107 BTC fees (about 2 billion yuan) to miners; 3. The current bull market has just started, and the daily fee has reached 180 BTC , 5400 BTC a month. "Prepare to watch the average BTC transaction fee of 1,000 to 2,000 yuan, and the peak transaction fee of tens of thousands of yuan. The miners hold the butcher knife carefully crafted by Core, and strive to collect 20 billion yuan in fees from BTC users a month."

However, cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo predicted that a major Bitcoin bull run could begin in the fourth quarter. He said bitcoin's rise above $11,000 could put it at the start of a "bull market" and he was "confident" about the main phase of the bull market.

Willy Woo simultaneously analyzed various on-chain data points, including Bitcoin's mempool and relative strength index (RSI), to assess market cycles. Specifically, the on-chain RSI suggests that a major bull market may have started in the fourth quarter, according to Woo.

It is worth noting that the business media Bloomberg recently released a research report on the cryptocurrency market. The report noted that Bitcoin's stable price is about six times the price of an ounce of gold, and that Bitcoin's growing correlation with gold and the decline in volatility indicate the durability of its price rise. Loose policies from central banks around the world will remain the driving force behind its price rise.

Bloomberg also said the price of Bitcoin remains undervalued based on key on-chain metrics, as the 30-day average number of addresses from Coinmetrics corresponds to a Bitcoin price above $14,000, compared to an average of around $11,000 since 2017. Dollar.

In contrast, Bloomberg remains uninterested in Ethereum: Ethereum, while it has breached last year's highs and jumped to become one of the best-performing major crypto assets in 2020, is in line with the favorable demand and supply that underpins Bitcoin. Compared with the conditions, the Ethereum rally is more speculative.

Tags：

FTT