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Bitcoin's "history repeats itself" has completed the first half, and the probability of a fall after a surge is still high



The nature of each level: daily line - rising, 4 hours - consolidation (more pattern), 1 hour - consolidation (more pattern)

The screenshot is from the 6-hour chart of OKEX BTC/USDT perpetual contract: For the market, there are two angles, one is the objective trend status and the coping strategies formulated according to the objective trend, and the other is the subjective prediction based on experience . Actual trading is mainly based on coping strategies under objective trends. Subjective forecasting is more of a prospect or entertainment for future development. It cannot be used directly as a trading strategy. The main purpose is to prepare psychologically for potential risks and opportunities in advance .

Qi Zhou, founder of ETHStorage: Once L2 and other technologies are relatively mature, I believe that Bitcoin will also adopt these technologies: Jinse Finance reported that at the theme event "Bitcoin's 14th Anniversary" organized by Bitmain and Jinse Finance, ETHStorage founder Qi Zhou According to Zhou, according to my observation, the longer a chain is, the higher its market value is. This chain will be very cautious in supporting new technologies and new applications. For example, it is relatively easy to add some functions to Ethereum in the early stage. , as the market value of Ethereum grows and applications continue to mature, it will take a lot of time to add new functions and applications such as L2.

In terms of decentralization, Bitcoin still has a relatively large dominance. In terms of applications, forks like Ethereum are very frequent. In the history of Ethereum, many bugs have been secretly repaired. It has been criticized by the Bitcoin community for not being decentralized enough. Signals such as the departure of Satoshi Nakamoto indicate that Bitcoin is completely decentralized, not only the node operation, but also the entire development process. No one can centralize the control, which will lead to some difficulties in the adoption of new technologies in Bitcoin. , Once L2 and other technologies are relatively mature, I believe that Bitcoin will also adopt these technologies to solve more complex problems, and Bitcoin will still have a very large room for appreciation. [2023/1/3 9:50:03]

The current objective trend and coping strategies: History repeats itself as scheduled, but now until the first half of the "acting", the currency price has risen rapidly in a short period of time after consolidating near the upper edge of the consolidation zone, and the rise has been relatively large. It is exactly the same as the position marked "1" in our figure. At present, the second half of the period (sharp fall after a surge) has not yet occurred, but judging from the current trend structure, the probability of this phenomenon in the later stage is still not small.

Michael Saylor: Bitcoin is a currency network: MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor tweeted that Apple is a mobile network and Google is a search-ethexc network. Facebook is a social network and Bitcoin is a currency network. Everyone will benefit from advances in software and hardware technology and Metcalfe's Law (the value of the network increases as the square of the number of users increases). [2020/10/14]

As shown in the figure, the kinetic energy indicator MACD of the same period after the currency price made a new high has not been significantly enlarged. On the contrary, the signs of top divergence are still very obvious. At the same time, the increase in trading volume did not continue after this pull-up, but shrank rapidly after the increase, indicating that the persistence of the bulls' active-ethexc attack is not good. Therefore, it is recommended not to rush to buy at a high level in the short to medium term, as the potential risks are obviously greater than the potential opportunities.

"Rich Dad, Poor Dad" author: If you have money, you might as well buy Bitcoin and silver: "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki tweeted in the early morning that Dennis Gartman (Dennis Gartman) ) think gold prices have peaked, and I agree. Silver still around $25, $50 next? Everyone can afford it. If you have money, Bitcoin is going up in value. I don't have gold, but silver and bitcoin. Do you have silver and bitcoin?[2020/7/29]

If the later trend of the currency price falls as expected, it is recommended to focus on the first-line support of 12,000. If there is an obvious stop and stabilization above this price, it means that the bulls are still active-ethexc in undertaking. If it breaks, it will be difficult to have a significant rise in the short term.

Subjective expectations (for entertainment only): Yesterday’s expectations were basically realized. It is estimated that the currency price will fluctuate and adjust in the future. The probability of finally breaking 1200 is greater than the probability of stabilizing and recovering above 12000. This paragraph is not intended as a trading strategy reference.

News | Report: Bitcoin MVRV closed at 1.33, indicating that holders have been profitable since the beginning of 2019: Jinse Finance reported that according to the latest research from CoinMetrics, more than 50% of the top 18 cryptocurrencies ended 2019 in an uptrend Year. Among them, XTZ became the most profitable investment with a 182% increase after experiencing a late surge. Of the top three coins, only Bitcoin managed to close on the upside with gains of almost 90%, while Ethereum fell 6% and XRP fell 47%. In terms of market capitalization, the market capitalization of USDT on the ETH chain surpassed USDT on the Omni chain, increasing by nearly 3,700%, reaching a market capitalization of $2.3 billion. However, the market capitalization of USDT on the Omni chain has dropped by 39%, dropping to $11.6 billion. Additionally, the MVRV index (total market capitalization/realized market capitalization) is flagged as a potential signal to measure whether market participants are profitable. Bitcoin’s MVRV increased in 2019, closing at 1.33, the report said, suggesting that BTC holders have been profitable since the beginning of 2019 and remained profitable by the end of the year. Ethereum’s MVRV gradually increased, but closed at 0.61, indicating a loss for holders by the end of 2019. The MVRV of BSV has fallen sharply, closing at 1.70 for the year, and holders are profitable. [2020/1/3]

Resistance and support

Resistance: 12400--12600--13000

Support: 12180--12000--11800

The nature of each level: daily line - rising, 4 hours - rising, 1 hour - rising

The screenshot is from the 6-hour chart of OKEX ETH/USDT perpetual contract: the current objective trend and coping strategies: ETH also showed a trend of falling after a slight rise last night as expected, but the fall was limited and did not fall below the limit set by us yesterday The 416 strong and weak dividing line, the medium and short-term trend continues to maintain a long pattern.

But again, although this rising pattern exists, the probability of continuing to rise sharply in the short term is lower than the probability of falling again. We can look at another picture. The picture below is the trend chart of ETH since its listing. The current price has reached an important intensive transaction area.

It is usually difficult to effectively cross this position in a short period of time. In contrast, the probability of falling back after a false breakthrough or falling within the range is higher. Of course, it must be made clear that it is difficult to reverse the upward trend that has been formed in this kind of falling expectation, and it is more likely to be a short-term gender adjustment, so we must have a big picture.

It is recommended to focus on the 416 first-line support in the short term. Those with heavy positions or short-term positions can consider setting a protective stop loss below this price. If it falls below, they will automatically leave the market to cash in some profits. If it does not break, continue to hold it for later The rise is the main one, but not chasing the rise.

Subjective expectations (for entertainment only): Continuing yesterday's expectations, it is estimated that in the short term, it may be blocked and fall back after reaching the 450-460 area. This paragraph is not intended as a trading strategy reference.

Resistance: 450--460--470

Support: 416--400--393

The screenshot is from the 6-hour chart of OKEX EOS/USDT perpetual contract: the current objective trend and coping strategies: EOS is currently fluctuating at a high level within a narrow range, and the overall trend is still in a strong state, and the probability of continuing to rise is relatively high.

From the perspective of trading volume, the positive volume in recent days is obviously greater than the negative line when it fell back, and the fall after the stagflation at the high level is also very limited, indicating that the multi-party undertaking power is strong. In the later stage, continue to focus on the 416 first-line short-term strength and weakness dividing line. As long as there is no clear break, continue to hold positions and wait for growth. If you break the position clearly, you will leave the market temporarily. This probability is not high.

Subjective expectations (for entertainment only): It is estimated that after the consolidation above 3.6 is over, it will further hit a new high. This paragraph is not intended as a trading strategy reference.

Resistance: 3.90--4.10--4.30

Support: 3.60--3.44--3.30


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