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Golden Observation | Two weeks after the halving, look at the crypto market from data changes



Bitcoin completed the block reward halving at block height 630000 at 03:23 on May 12, Beijing time, and the block reward was halved from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. After 2 weeks, what changes have taken place in the data and market indicators on the chain? Through data comparison, we look for the market signals reflected in it.

The halving event causes the hash rate of the Bitcoin network to drop by 20%-30%, which slows down the block production rate. After the hash rate plummeted, the mining difficulty also saw a significant drop in the latest mining difficulty adjustment.

After the halving was completed, the price of Bitcoin rose steadily. After hitting the $10,000 mark, the price of Bitcoin fell by 3 percentage points in a single day due to the impact of transfers from ancient addresses in the market. At present, the price of Bitcoin has returned to the level on the day of the halving. The price is $8772.01.

Jinse Finance Market Report丨BTC pulls back slightly, and the bulls still have stamina: According to the Huobi market, the price of BTC rose last night, reaching a maximum of 9470USDT and then pulled back. Downside callback pattern. The moving averages on the daily chart are converging, forming an ascending channel. The 4-hour moving average MA10 constitutes support, MA5 forms pressure, and the 1-hour chart falls below the moving average MA30, but the support around 9320USDT is strong, and the bulls still have stamina. As of 18:30, the specific performance of mainstream currencies is as follows: [2020/7/9]

Golden Exclusive | Xiao Lei: The traditional market lacks bitcoin derivatives that can be traded directly: According to foreign media reports, the spot price of cryptocurrencies has been in a downturn in the first two quarters of 2018. Despite the bearish market sentiment, the CBOE and CME Group saw a significant increase in the sale of futures contracts in the second quarter of 2018. In view of the current sluggish bitcoin spot market, but the rising trading volume in the futures market, Jinse Finance exclusively interviewed Xiao Lei, an expert in digital currency analysis, who said, “The bitcoin futures contracts on these two exchange markets are a new development in themselves. Variety is a process from scratch, so this process must be a process of increasing trading volume, but overall, due to the decline in the bear market, futures are actually more acceptable to investors, because they can be shorted according to the trend , this is a credible participation channel for many investors who were not optimistic about Bitcoin before. Generally speaking, the trading volume of the futures market may affect the sentiment of the spot market. If the trading volume continues to rise, the actual Even if it is a bear market, it can be seen that the market is enthusiastic about Bitcoin transactions. This may also indicate that the traditional market currently lacks Bitcoin derivatives that can be directly traded, which may stimulate more exchanges and financial institutions to develop Bitcoin. related derivatives such as currencies.” When the reporter further asked whether the increase in futures trading volume would cause spot funds to transfer to futures, Xiao Lei said, “It is possible, but shorting itself is also under great pressure, because the spot market At present, there is still the dominance of prices, if there is a certain amount of rebound in the spot market, the pressure on short sellers in the futures market will be doubled.” [2018/7/13]

It is worth mentioning that although the market is relatively stable, the overall trading volume has declined significantly.

Golden Finance Exclusive Analysis Softbank combines its own payment advantages to vigorously expand the blockchain field: Golden Finance exclusive analysis, Japan’s Softbank Group and Mizuho Bank have jointly invested in a technology company called J Score. The company’s president Ryuichi Omori said that he will explore A new financing and payment method using virtual currency. SoftBank is a Japanese telecommunications and media holding company. Its subsidiaries are involved in businesses including broadband network, fixed-line telephone, e-commerce, Internet service, VoIP, technology service, holding, finance, media and marketing, etc. As a world-renowned company, Softbank is also making a comprehensive deployment in the blockchain field. Some time ago, the digital currency market analysis platform BTE announced that it has recently acquired Softbank China's capital. SBI Bit, a technology company under Japan's Softbank SBI Group, revealed that SBI Bit is preparing to build a digital currency exchange. In addition, Softbank Group established the "Carrier Blockchain Research Group", which aims to improve telecommunications services through blockchain technology, especially payment-based, to achieve balance recharge between different operators. It can be seen that Softbank is using the blockchain to combine its own traditional payment business advantages to expand new business models. [2018/5/8]

In addition, the market value of Bitcoin has risen slightly. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin ranks first, Ethereum ranks second, and other currencies remain basically stable. The impact of halving on the market value of other currencies is not obvious.

At the same time, compared with the high attention before the halving, the bitcoin price and Baidu search-ethexc index showed a downward trend in the past week.

Correspondingly, in the past week (05.18-05.24), the activity on the Bitcoin chain continued to decline, and the computing power of the entire network fluctuated around 90 EH/s. In terms of basic indicators on the chain, the average number of new addresses in the seven days was 414,600 BTC, a month-on-month decrease of 5.19%, and the average number of active-ethexc addresses was 870,200 BTC, a month-on-month decrease of 1.32%. The seven-day average on-chain transactions was 918,700 BTC, a month-on-month decrease of 5.37%; the average daily number of transactions was 269,100, a month-on-month decrease of 8.56%. The seven-day average computing power of the entire network is about 91.29 EH/s, a rise of 2.87% month-on-month.

But it is worth mentioning that the trading volume of the encrypted derivatives market fluctuates with the market, and there is no obvious downward trend. The Bitcoin options market has been heating up since the halving, with open interest hitting a new record last week.

(Derivatives Market Volume)

(Open Interest Volume)

Wu Xiangjian, a senior analyst at TokenInsight, pointed out in the analysis of Jinse Finance: According to the data of CME, there were about 1,300 options open on May 15 before the strike price of the CME May 29 calloption expired at $10,500-13,000, accounting for the total open interest ( 1,869) about 70%. Calculated on the basis of 5 BTC per contract on CME, the open interest exceeds $64M; Putoption's open interest is very small. From the perspective of an option buyer, this situation can be seen as a bullish signal. I think the completion of halving and the reduction of market uncertainty are the main reasons for the growth of the Bitcoin options market. Since the specific transaction details cannot be obtained, it is impossible to infer the driving entity. Simply put, option traders are a relatively professional group of people in this market, and this position shows that Bitcoin is bullish in the short term.


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