Bitcoin price fluctuates wildly 24 hours before halving Key indicators are bullish

Although fears and uncertainties about Bitcoin have been greatly reduced ahead of the upcoming halving, experts have noticed that the level of greed on the F&G index has increased significantly in the past few days. While the halving doesn’t always correlate directly to Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index, it 100% definitely has an impact on Bitcoin’s hash rate. Selling pressure will increase after Bitcoin halving, but in the long run, the price of Bitcoin will rebound.

Less than 24 hours before the third Bitcoin (BTC) mining reward halving, the mainstream market hype around the halving has grown exponentially, especially after Bitcoin broke the $10,000 mark some time ago. On May 9 (the dates of this article refer to UTC), Bitcoin fell to the $8,100 mark, and then recovered slightly to around $8,800.

Despite a 15% plunge in Bitcoin’s price on May 9, Bitcoin’s overall success in defusing the market’s bearish pressure has injected some confidence into the hearts of global investors.

Also, it’s worth mentioning that Bitcoin has nearly tripled in value since March 12, when its price fell to around $3,867. Nearly 85 percent (25.79 million) of all bitcoin addresses in all wallets can currently sell their bitcoin holdings for a profit, according to a report published by blockchain research firm IntoTheBlock.

Armed with all this information, it's worth digging into the question of what exactly its key market indicators suggest about Bitcoin's future after the halving, and whether Bitcoin is destined to cause significant financial growth -- which is also Since the beginning of the year, many experts have repeatedly pointed out the problem.

Bloomberg Intelligence: Bitcoin and Ethereum will outperform other assets when the economic tide turns: Jinse Finance reports that Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone believes that when the economy returns to a bull market, Bitcoin and Ethereum will outperform other assets. superior to other assets. Bitcoin in particular, which may be in the early stages of trading, is more of a safe-haven asset like Treasuries or gold, the analyst said. In the latest edition of its "Bloomberg Crypto Outlook" report, Bloomberg Intelligence suggested that Bitcoin may have bottomed out, as most of Bitcoin's downside volatility occurred in June, while its Q3 Bitcoin's performance has been very stable, which provides the potential for Bitcoin to transform into a safe-haven asset in the final quarter of the year, and October has historically been the best month for Bitcoin since 2014, with an average monthly increase of 20%.

In terms of Ethereum, Bloomberg Intelligence pointed out that Ethereum is currently trapped in a "cage" between $1,000 and $2,000, but it still outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index in the third quarter. The utility of the "cryptocurrency" platform, which is a major use case, will drive Ethereum adoption and upside in the future. [2022/10/6 18:40:48]

Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index

ADA founder: If you want to bet on who will win between Bitcoin and Ethereum, you will choose Ethereum: ADA founder Charles Hoskinson said today that the Bitcoin network is too slow compared to Ethereum. Bitcoin is inferior to other cryptocurrency networks in terms of speed and functionality, especially Bitcoin's basic proof-of-work mechanism has also been criticized. He also said that if he had to bet on who would win between Bitcoin and Ethereum, he would choose Ethereum. (U.today)[2021/6/21 23:53:41]

To get a better understanding of what happened during the halving, Cointelegraph reached out to Pascal Gauthier, CEO of hardware crypto wallet maker Ledger, who believes that throughout March and April, Bitcoin's fears And the greedy index has been very conservative. However, he added that his firm has noticed a huge decoupling of interest in cryptocurrencies in social media and Google searches amid concerns over the volatility of the crypto market.

He also believes that as the halving approaches, the level of greed in the F&G Index seems to increase exponentially, adding that this phenomenon can be largely attributed to the above-mentioned events.

News | Well-known watch brand Franck Muller will launch a series of bitcoin-themed watches that support BTC payments: According to Forbes, the well-known watch brand Franck Muller has launched a limited edition series of bitcoin-themed watches. It is reported that this series of watches can be purchased on Franck Muller's official website and its flagship store in Dubai. In addition to accepting bank transfer payment, it also supports BTC payment. Erol Baliyan, the company's regional director, also said that Franck Muller is researching the top five currencies such as XRP. [2019/5/7]

Similarly, David Waslen, CEO of blockchain forecasting platform HedgeTrade, believes that with the Bitcoin halving less than a day away, Bitcoin is hovering in the neutral range of the Fear and Greed Index, getting rid of excessive fear The long-term bearish trend in the range. “With record volumes and all the money pouring into stablecoins (easily transferred into Bitcoin), this neutral phase may not last for long,” he added.

Jeffrey Liu Xun, CEO of XanPool, a peer-to-peer fiat currency gateway, agrees with the above point of view. He believes that although Bitcoin's "fear and greed index" has been showing signs of neutrality, the greed element seems to be taking over and growing at a fairly rapid rate. Xun further stated:

The F&G index has just moved from 'extreme fear' to neutral range and appears to be moving towards 'extreme greed' range.

News | Swiss publishing house will use Bitcoin to pay employee salaries: According to Cointelegraph, the large Swiss-based publisher Netzmedien AG announced yesterday that it will start using Bitcoin to pay employee salaries. [2019/4/2]

The impact of halving on computing power will be obvious

The Bitcoin halving is a major event that most in the cryptocurrency community look forward to every four years because it directly relates to the supply and demand of Bitcoin. While the halving doesn’t always correlate directly to Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index, it 100% definitely has an impact on Bitcoin’s hash rate. This is because, after the halving occurs, the block reward decreases, which leads to a significant increase in the requirements related to mining efficiency.

To get a fuller picture of how the halving will affect Bitcoin’s hash rate, Cointelegraph reached out to Lennix Lai, director of financial markets at cryptocurrency trading platform OKEx. he thinks:

In the short term, we may see some miners unable to continue mining. This means that the computing power may be reduced. However, as mining machines and miners become more efficient, computing power will gradually pick up.

Similarly, Marie Tatibouet, chief marketing officer at bitcoin exchange Gate.io, noted that, based on historically documented data, the network’s hash rate typically rises gradually after a bitcoin halving — but after the halving After half a month, the computing power will drop again. She further said:

Fixed-point offer: BTC at $11,015: BTC at $11,015, a 24-hour drop of about 3.52%. ETH ether reported at $900, a 24-hour drop of about 4.88%. Ripple was quoted at 6.48 yuan, a 24-hour drop of about 2.88%. ADA was quoted at 2.23 yuan, a 24-hour drop of about 2.23%. (Binance)[2018/2/21]

After the second halving, the computing power rose rapidly in 2017. If we believe these data trends, I think that in the month after the halving, the hash rate will increase.

Finally, many experts also tend to agree that hashrate is likely to rise in the near future, as a large number of Bitcoin miners may have to start pooling their resources to keep operating in it. Not only that, but it is entirely possible that day-to-day mining in this emerging field will be dominated by a small number of individuals or groups with large-scale mining machines and the necessary capital to withstand the threat of block reward reduction.

Effect of Halving on Bitcoin Price

The reduction in Bitcoin’s block reward will become immediately apparent, with the number of bitcoins received per block falling from 12.5 to 6.25. According to Lai, this reduction is likely to force smaller miners out of business and lead to greater selling pressure, which in turn may cause the cryptocurrency market to turn bearish in the short term. However, in the long run, Lai believes that the price of Bitcoin will rebound, as Bitcoin has started to prove itself as a safe-haven asset from a macroeconomic perspective.

Furthermore, if Bitcoin’s hashrate drops after the halving, then historical data seems to suggest that Bitcoin’s price will likely drop with it. In this regard, looking at the data from 2012 and 2016, the price of Bitcoin has risen before each halving and fell back shortly thereafter. Also, in both cases, over the medium term, Bitcoin's price surged 10,000% in 2012 and then another 2,500% in 2016.

Xun also believes that Bitcoin may experience a price drop in the short term. In this regard, he clarified: "I see a partial top about 2 days before and after the halving. Then Bitcoin will be lower than this price in the short term." However, the HODL Moon podcast "Dark Side" (Dark Side) ) co-host Kade Almendinger is adamant that any potential future gains in bitcoin may already be priced into its existing bitcoin value. He added:

We have seen Bitcoin price rise from April 28th to 30th, followed by a sell-off pullback later on April 30th. Bitcoin rallied again on May 6 and seemed to have some support at $9,200. Bulls may push Bitcoin price higher ahead of halving, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin reach $10,000 before halving, with a modest sell-off and price correction after halving.

Uncertainty due to COVID-19

Considering the price surge following the previous two Bitcoin halvings, it would not be surprising to see a similar surge for Bitcoin in the near term. This time, however, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, experts are eagerly waiting to see how the current situation will affect the future of Bitcoin, especially as the coronavirus continues to roil stock markets around the world. On this issue, Tatiboue said:

I think the COVID-19 pandemic is playing a huge role on a larger scale. Initially, it caused some anxiety among the investor community before eventually stabilizing. We have seen an increase in Bitcoin transactions on the platform following the outbreak of the COVID-19 in China. In my opinion, the increase in Bitcoin transaction volume in general is the reason for Bitcoin’s recent recovery and eventual stability.

Similarly, Lai also believes that the current cryptocurrency market remains cautiously bullish despite the COVID-19 crisis that has plunged the global economy into the Great Depression. In this regard, he added:

Central banks in most countries have been considering other non-monetary asset classes. But they have their limits, especially in the stock market, when it comes to guarding against the risks of a global lockdown triggered by COVID-19.

Is Bitcoin’s Momentum All From FOMO Sentiment?

In order to assess whether Bitcoin's current momentum is sustainable or simply a general fear of missing out (FOMO), it's worth considering that the ongoing optimism surrounding the crypto industry may be due to the fact that the Bitcoin network has matured over the past decade to As for it now supports hundreds of exchanges, futures markets, loan projects, wallets, trading platforms, and various blockchain-based financial applications. To this, Waslen added:

People are definitely going to be bullish, maybe some of it is based on hype. But that's all the building has been, plus Bitcoin has the world's largest decentralized computer, providing security for users around the world. It has been going strong for a decade, has not been hacked, and has exceeded the ROI of every other asset (last decade).

Finally, Gauthier believes that the pandemic has prompted traditional financial players to reassess their long-standing beliefs that many mainstream corporate entities have begun to view Bitcoin as a legitimate store of value, which he believes will help become The momentum of Bitcoin.

Outlook after Bitcoin Halving

Most crypto experts believe that Bitcoin's financial potential cannot be accurately determined in the short term because many technical variables are difficult to assess.

Additionally, with Bitcoin's current price hovering well below its 2017 price levels, many "get-rich-quick individuals" have disappeared from the crypto space, so the ecosystem is largely in the hands of those interested in capitalizing on Bitcoin. In the hands of those who use the digital potential of coins to create new financial platforms and other similar products. Speaking about the future of Bitcoin, Adam Traidman, CEO and co-founder of cryptocurrency wallet provider BRD, told Cointelegraph:

Warren Buffet won't invest in Bitcoin because it's too volatile, but he will focus on oil. The old ways of thinking are outdated. Compared to most other assets, if you hold Bitcoin throughout the year, you will eventually reach the top. There are many long-term bitcoin enthusiasts who say that no matter how the market fluctuates, in the end, if you believe in the future of bitcoin, then any price to buy bitcoin now is a good deal.

Text: Shiraz Jagati

Compiler: Zion  Editor in charge: Rose

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