How to deal with short positions and empty BTC?

312 plummet and the recent skyrocketing, I found a strange phenomenon, the frustration of being short is far stronger than being stuck. After being locked in, it will be easier psychologically, and it will be a big deal to endure it again. Takong is completely different. It's like you have been hungry for three days and three nights, and suddenly a table full of Chinese people is set up in front of you, and you can only see if you can eat it.

When facing a loss, we can find various objective reasons to shift responsibility to the market. However, when the market is rising, the market does nothing but provides opportunities, so we cannot transfer responsibility, and it is difficult to convince ourselves psychologically. The common goal of all investors is to pursue profit, and when the profit suddenly flies away, the investor's reaction will be like this thing he has owned for a long time but suddenly taken away. Munger called it "deprived super Response Tendency".

Deprived Super Reaction Tendency

Founder of Dfinity Foundation: Community members who can really realize their abilities account for less than 1% of the blockchain community: news on September 20, at the 8th Global Blockchain Summit hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Lab , Dominic Williams, founder and chief scientist of the Dfinity Foundation, delivered a speech on "The First Real World Computer-Internet Computer Blockchain".

Dominic Williams said in his speech: "ICP smart contracts can process Bitcoin directly on the Bitcoin ledger without any cross-chain bridges, which means that you can create native Bitcoin DeFi, which has huge prospects. Considering Bitcoin It accounts for the entire network. Therefore, using IC blockchain does not require cloud or traditional IT architecture. When you deliver on IC and Web3, you just use your face ID, fingerprint to create a session, if so If the interaction is sensitive, or if the security requirements are very high, you can use the ledger hardware wallet or UBK hardware wallet, all of which are supported. In addition, the community members who can really realize the ability only account for a small part of the blockchain community to 1%." [2022/9/20 7:08:13]

The Mungers once had a docile and kind dog who would exhibit canine deprivation superreaction tendencies. The only way this dog can bite is by taking the food out of its mouth while it is being fed. If you do, this friendly dog will automatically bite you. It can't help it. For a dog, there is nothing more stupid than biting its owner. But there's no way this dog can't be stupid, and it's born with an automatic "deprivational superresponse tendency."

BendDAO will suspend all functions 3 hours before the merger of the Ethereum mainnet: On September 7, the NFT mortgage lending agreement BendDAO announced that it will suspend ETH deposits, withdrawals, loans and auctions 3 hours before the merger of the Ethereum mainnet. All features will be re-enabled and working properly on PoS Ethereum shortly after the merge.

In addition, BendDAO stated that on PoW Ethereum, the BendDAO smart contract will also work normally. Users can process their PoW assets on PoW Ethereum, including withdrawing ETHW after the merger. [2022/9/7 13:13:58]

The same is true for people and dogs. The joy of picking up 1,000 yuan for nothing can hardly offset the pain of losing 100 yuan. The deprivation super-response tendency, in other words, is loss aversion.

Abracadabra, a stable currency agreement, released a Curve governance proposal to add MagicCRV to the whitelist: On April 30, the stable currency agreement Abracadabra released a Curve governance proposal to add MagicCRV to the whitelist. MagicCRV is the packaging asset of CRV on Abracadabra. Users can lock CRV to cast MagicCRV. The lock-up period is 4 years. During this period, users can exchange MagicCRV for mCRV, and trade it for CRV in the mCRV/CRV pool transaction on Curve. MagicCRV will allow Abracadabra to have voting rights and will be used to improve the MIM peg. [2022/4/30 2:42:34]

In investment transactions, human nature is the most fearful of control. Human nature here is actually animal nature. Evolutionary psychologists believe that the tendency of loss aversion is related to the evolution process of human beings.

The progress of the "SEC v. Ripple" case: the court approved the SEC's extension request: On March 24, US District Judge Sarah Netburn approved the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) request to extend the time of the Ripple case. This follows a March 21 SEC motion to determine whether additional discovery is warranted. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen, two separate defendants, objected to the motion in a letter to the court, accusing the SEC of deliberately trying to slow down the proceedings. (U.today)[2022/3/24 14:14:44]

In primitive times, the external environment of human beings was very harsh, and every decision would directly affect survival, and the distribution frequency of death threats faced by decision-making was even far greater than survival opportunities. It was this long-term selection pressure that shaped the ubiquitous loss. dislike tendency. Obviously, "ancient evolutionary memory" is still embedded in our genes.

The deprivation super reaction tendency caused by stepping into the air is actually a normal human reaction. After you realize that this tendency is about to appear, please press the pause button in time instead of chasing high to reduce the pain after stepping into the air. In an irrational state, the high probability of chasing high is to stand guard at a high position.

Therefore, since you are out of space, leave the market temporarily and calm down first. Investment decisions made by people in an irrational state will eventually end in tragedy.

Why do we keep missing out?

Let me talk about a very interesting phenomenon: whether it is the Mavericks last year or the rebound from the bottom this time, the main group of people who go short are the old leeks.

For the old leek, after the 312 plunge, Bitcoin completely entered a bear market, and of course the entire market is indeed still in a bear market. If it is a newcomer and a bottom hunter, in less than 2 months, Bitcoin has nearly tripled. This is not a bull market. For the top, the recent increase is just a drop in the bucket, but for the bottom, this increase is very gratifying. For the market, is it important that the old leeks are stuck at the top?

I saw the newcomers laughing, but who cares about the old ones crying. The market doesn't care about the previous price, whether it's an old-fashioned show, let alone the desolation of old leeks. After the 3.12 sharp drop, practitioners in the entire industry have almost halved. Those who left their jobs and changed careers, practitioners can be said to be the most steadfast old leeks, but many practitioners still believe that Bitcoin will fall to $2,000.

Since the 17 bull market, Bitcoin has never broken through the previous high. After 312, the bear market thinking has further solidified. The old leeks do not believe that Bitcoin will skyrocket, and always feel that there will be new lows. For example, early holders of Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ethereum did not die in the 15-year winter, but left the market during the 16-year rise.

The most difficult part of the bull-bear conversion is the change of thinking, because past lessons and experiences have always reminded the old leek that this is a bear market, and it will plummet to new lows. It is conceivable that once the real bull market comes, how many old leeks will sing and go empty again.

So, be a "new guy".

Forget the so-called past highs, forget your position cost, forget your painful experience, re-enter the currency circle with a new face, re-examine yourself and observe the market.

So, what do you do when you miss out?

It is too normal to be in the air, because the market is too chaotic and disorderly to find general laws, over-analyzing and barely predicting is tantamount to trying to catch a fish, therefore, accepting the fact that the market is unpredictable is the first step in establishing a psychological advantage.

What I am most afraid of is the mentality of being dead and short. Once bitten by a snake, I am afraid of well ropes for ten years.

There is no need to be afraid of "the store will disappear after passing this village", and the principal is not small, so there is nothing to be afraid of. In the currency circle, there are opportunities to make money every day. The bull market does not end in one day, and a real bull market will always give investors the opportunity to get in the car again.

Finally, mentality is too important. Everyone has Buddha nature and demon nature. The key is how to guide yourself.

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